Pakistan in Media

The News, Pakistan, Tuesday, October 20, 2009

The tides of war now wash across Waziristan. Operation Rah-e-Nijat is underway and the first battlefield reports are coming in along with claims and counterclaims from both sides. This is a complex conflict, not a simple case of 'baddies' versus 'goodies'. The patchwork of tribal allegiances and rivalries is going to colour and influence the outcome of the wider battle. The Ahmedzai Wazir tribe has been able to convince Taliban leader Maulvi Nazir to stay neutral and not to throw in his lot with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan's new leader Hakimullah Mehsud. This is an important move as he controls Wana and southern areas of the Agency, but his neutrality came at a price. The NWFP government has agreed to several demands made by the Ahmedzai Wazirs, including the reopening of blockaded roads and the launch of several high-value development schemes in their areas. Deals with tribal groups in this area are notorious for their fragility, but for now we have to accept the neutrality of the Ahmedzai Wazirs at face value. Clearly they have no wish to jeopardize their own considerable vested interests, and watching from a position of armed neutrality from the sidelines allows them the luxury of watching their rivals suffer at no cost to themselves. From the military perspective it means they can lower their concerns about their southern flank if the deal with the Ahmedzai Wazirs holds, and they will be seeking something similar with Hafiz Gul Bahadar in the North Waziristan Agency.

After twenty-four hours of fierce fighting the army are saying that sixty Taliban have been killed (but have not offered a shred of evidence to support this) for the loss of five of our own men plus eleven wounded. We are beginning to get an insight into just how well-armed the Taliban are, as on Sunday the air force is said to have destroyed six anti-aircraft guns being used by them. These would present little or no threat to jet aircraft, but could be extremely effective against slow-moving helicopters. A check post has been established in Mandana and our forces now control Nawaz Kot. For their part the Taliban are issuing statements that they are pushing our troops back to their bases and inflicting heavy casualties on them. There is nothing to support their claims and we have no reason to believe them. These are early days in an operation that could last months. Not only is the conflict complex but so is the terrain. As we have seen in Swat, it is one thing to take the ground, another to hold it. And putting it all back together post-conflict in a place where the writ of the state has never been more than diaphanous is going to make Swat look like a walk in the park by comparison.