Just the beginning
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Daily Times, Pakistan
Saturday, May 30, 2009
COMMENT: Shaukat Qadir
The political government must move swiftly to rehabilitate the IDPs at the earliest possible, rebuild all required facilities, provide a local civilian administration and improve socio-economic conditions to win the war for hearts and minds
It does seem that, finally, the Asif Zardari-led government has found the courage to stand up to the threat that was beginning to surround Pakistan. However, this is only the beginning of the first battle; there is a long way to go if we are to win the war.
To begin with, the military can never win this war, or any other for that matter, by itself; but least of all can it win a war against its own citizens. All it can do is to create an environment for the political government to bargain from a position of strength. It is up to the political government to use that space and the opportunity provided by the military to find a lasting solution. After all, this war is solely about winning the hearts and minds of the people!
Although I numbered among the minority that opposed the Swat peace deal, it appears to have had an upside to it as well. On the one hand, it silenced most critics of the military option and, on the other, it appears to have convinced the local population — which, while opposed to Taliban rule, was becoming reconciled to it in the belief that no other option was left — of the fact that any other option is better than the Taliban.
A vast majority of the people displaced by the military operations have stated unequivocally that they are prepared for any sacrifice if their valley is finally rid of the Taliban. However, if the Pakistani nation, supported by the international community, fails to look after them, and the military action becomes prolonged, these sentiments might undergo a not very surprising change. Already, apprehensive of militants entering camps intended for the IDPs, the special cell created for them is taking five to seven days to ‘clear’ families before allowing them to enter the camps.
In an earlier piece, I had likened the movements of the various chapters of the Pakistani Taliban as a ‘multiple pincers movement’. Faced with such a move, any military begins delaying operations against the other branches of the pincers, while eliminating one. Quite obviously, the opponents attempt to use this opportunity to accelerate the other branch(es) of their operation so as to avoid being dealt with piecemeal.
Thus far, the Pakistan Army appears to have been the more successful of the two opponents. The army also began its operations on May 8 in a tactically sound manner: surrounding Swat from different directions, it first cleared all the areas surrounding Swat, which the Taliban had occupied within a span of ten days, before moving into the Swat valley from all accesses to it. Massive use of air power preceded their entry, but it was confined to known militant strongholds so as to minimise collateral damage. This is the first operation by any military on either side of the Durand Line that has confirmed the killing of a number of acknowledged ‘high value’ targets.
Hemmed in from all sides and pounded from the air, the Taliban now sought refuge in the town of Mingora. It is at this stage that military operations slowed down, as was to be expected. Mingora is a town where the army will have to conduct urban guerrilla warfare, a far more difficult task than in rural areas, particularly since in many areas, the militants were well entrenched in well constructed residential areas.
Surprisingly, however, most of Mingora has fallen very quickly, probably because the local population is supporting the military operations. In fact, according to my unofficial sources, Fazlullah is dead. This contention is given some credence by the fact that his spokesman, Muslim Khan, has called upon their Taliban not to contest the military in Mingora.
However, the military operation is only going to lead to a political success if a permanent military presence is established in each recaptured region, strong enough to reassure the locals and prevent a return of the Taliban.
The political government must also move swiftly to rehabilitate the IDPs at the earliest possible, rebuild all required facilities, provide a local civilian administration and improve socio-economic conditions to win the war for hearts and minds. Time is of the essence. I have expressed my concerns regarding the methodology of the reconstruction effort, which must, in the words of Sun Tzu, “flow along the path of least resistance until it becomes an inexorable force before which no boulder, however strong, can withstand”.
Militarily too, Swat is only a beginning. Unless all other areas under control of the other chapters of the Taliban are similarly dealt with, the war will never be won. In each case, the socio-political vacuum will have to be filled in accordance with the wishes of the people as soon as the military operation succeeds, followed by a socio-economic restructuring of the region.
The US, the CIA (which I believe to be the only real rogue intelligence agency), Israel and India, whichever of them is active in the region, will have to be persuaded to give the Pakistani government and its military the much needed time necessary for success. And finally, the US will have to begin to succeed doing the same in Afghanistan, else our western borders will need permanent protection.
This article is a modified version of one originally written for the daily National. The author is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Source
Saturday, May 30, 2009
COMMENT: Shaukat Qadir
The political government must move swiftly to rehabilitate the IDPs at the earliest possible, rebuild all required facilities, provide a local civilian administration and improve socio-economic conditions to win the war for hearts and minds
It does seem that, finally, the Asif Zardari-led government has found the courage to stand up to the threat that was beginning to surround Pakistan. However, this is only the beginning of the first battle; there is a long way to go if we are to win the war.
To begin with, the military can never win this war, or any other for that matter, by itself; but least of all can it win a war against its own citizens. All it can do is to create an environment for the political government to bargain from a position of strength. It is up to the political government to use that space and the opportunity provided by the military to find a lasting solution. After all, this war is solely about winning the hearts and minds of the people!
Although I numbered among the minority that opposed the Swat peace deal, it appears to have had an upside to it as well. On the one hand, it silenced most critics of the military option and, on the other, it appears to have convinced the local population — which, while opposed to Taliban rule, was becoming reconciled to it in the belief that no other option was left — of the fact that any other option is better than the Taliban.
A vast majority of the people displaced by the military operations have stated unequivocally that they are prepared for any sacrifice if their valley is finally rid of the Taliban. However, if the Pakistani nation, supported by the international community, fails to look after them, and the military action becomes prolonged, these sentiments might undergo a not very surprising change. Already, apprehensive of militants entering camps intended for the IDPs, the special cell created for them is taking five to seven days to ‘clear’ families before allowing them to enter the camps.
In an earlier piece, I had likened the movements of the various chapters of the Pakistani Taliban as a ‘multiple pincers movement’. Faced with such a move, any military begins delaying operations against the other branches of the pincers, while eliminating one. Quite obviously, the opponents attempt to use this opportunity to accelerate the other branch(es) of their operation so as to avoid being dealt with piecemeal.
Thus far, the Pakistan Army appears to have been the more successful of the two opponents. The army also began its operations on May 8 in a tactically sound manner: surrounding Swat from different directions, it first cleared all the areas surrounding Swat, which the Taliban had occupied within a span of ten days, before moving into the Swat valley from all accesses to it. Massive use of air power preceded their entry, but it was confined to known militant strongholds so as to minimise collateral damage. This is the first operation by any military on either side of the Durand Line that has confirmed the killing of a number of acknowledged ‘high value’ targets.
Hemmed in from all sides and pounded from the air, the Taliban now sought refuge in the town of Mingora. It is at this stage that military operations slowed down, as was to be expected. Mingora is a town where the army will have to conduct urban guerrilla warfare, a far more difficult task than in rural areas, particularly since in many areas, the militants were well entrenched in well constructed residential areas.
Surprisingly, however, most of Mingora has fallen very quickly, probably because the local population is supporting the military operations. In fact, according to my unofficial sources, Fazlullah is dead. This contention is given some credence by the fact that his spokesman, Muslim Khan, has called upon their Taliban not to contest the military in Mingora.
However, the military operation is only going to lead to a political success if a permanent military presence is established in each recaptured region, strong enough to reassure the locals and prevent a return of the Taliban.
The political government must also move swiftly to rehabilitate the IDPs at the earliest possible, rebuild all required facilities, provide a local civilian administration and improve socio-economic conditions to win the war for hearts and minds. Time is of the essence. I have expressed my concerns regarding the methodology of the reconstruction effort, which must, in the words of Sun Tzu, “flow along the path of least resistance until it becomes an inexorable force before which no boulder, however strong, can withstand”.
Militarily too, Swat is only a beginning. Unless all other areas under control of the other chapters of the Taliban are similarly dealt with, the war will never be won. In each case, the socio-political vacuum will have to be filled in accordance with the wishes of the people as soon as the military operation succeeds, followed by a socio-economic restructuring of the region.
The US, the CIA (which I believe to be the only real rogue intelligence agency), Israel and India, whichever of them is active in the region, will have to be persuaded to give the Pakistani government and its military the much needed time necessary for success. And finally, the US will have to begin to succeed doing the same in Afghanistan, else our western borders will need permanent protection.
This article is a modified version of one originally written for the daily National. The author is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Source
Labels: Extremism, Militancy, Military Operation, Swat Operation, Taliban
posted @ 11:17 AM,
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