Is the US after our nukes?
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Daily Times, Pakistan
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
ANALYSIS: Ijaz Hussain
The US should forthwith stop the media blitz about Pakistan’s nukes falling into terrorist hands. If the Americans have any concerns on this count, they should agree to communicate them to the Pakistani government through diplomatic channels
American officials, civilian and military, are working overtime these days to create a scare about the safety of Pakistan’s nukes by claiming that these could fall into the hands of terrorists.
(They formulate their statements quite ingeniously: affirm in the first part absolute faith in Pakistan’s ability to protect them but in the second cunningly cast aspersions on it.)
They are not alone in doing so; the American media has joined them by claiming that the US has contingency plans to secure Pakistani nukes if things get out of hand.
This is driving Pakistanis nuts. They believe that the Americans, in concert with the Israelis and the Indians, are out to deprive them of their nuclear assets. This raises a number of questions.
First, is there a real threat of these weapons falling into the hands of terrorists? Second, if the threat is not palpable, what is the US up to through this fear mongering? Third, what should be done to raise the comfort level of Pakistanis?
Before addressing these questions, a word about the American Ambassador to Islamabad Anne W Patterson’s comment on media reports about the US contingency plans. Strongly contradicting these reports, the other day she observed: “I have seen this in media. I will say that it is all nonsense. It is not technically possible.”
Ambassador Patterson’s denial is understandable because, as a diplomat, she has to say certain things for the good of her country. Otherwise, how could she explain President Obama’s statement in which he publicly confessed that all options were open in case of a threat to Pakistan’s nukes? The ‘all options’ formulation obviously also includes a military option which requires the existence of a contingency plan for its execution.
As to the possibility of these weapons falling into terrorists’ hands, experts categorically rule it out for the simple reason that the nuclear set-up enjoys multi-layered protection. To begin with, these weapons are not available in assembled form as their components are scattered. So even if terrorists were to occupy a site or two where these weapons are located, it would be inconsequential because they could at best get hold of some components but not the assembled devices.
Next, even if terrorists get hold of assembled devices these are useless unless they also get hold of the codes without which the weapons cannot be triggered. It signifies that the American hullabaloo about terrorists’ ability to grab Pakistan’s nuclear assets by storming weapon sites is utterly unfounded.
Given this backdrop, what is the Obama administration up to by relentlessly talking up the possibility of these weapons falling into terrorists’ hands? America’s apologists contend that through these statements it is simply trying to bring home to the Pakistani government the gravity of threat that terrorists pose to Pakistan.
However, the frequency with which the administration (in tandem with the American media and think tanks, which, like their Indian counterparts, are always ready to play along with the American administration) is churning out these statements and the medium (i.e. the media as opposed to diplomatic channels) that it has wittingly chosen to do so give the impression that its intentions go much beyond that. It seems to be preparing international opinion for military action to take out these nukes for “safe international custody” on the ground that the Pakistani government is too fragile and helpless to take care of them.
This media blitz is not all. There are other American acts of omission and commission that heighten misgivings about US intentions regarding Pakistan’s nukes. For example, terrorists are getting latest and highly sophisticated weapons from across the Afghan border. The question arises: who is supplying weapons to terrorists?
Many in Pakistan see a US hand in it. It is noteworthy that whenever the Pakistan Army spokesperson is quizzed about the specific source of these weapons, he prefers to remain silent. To many critics this silence is meaningful. In their view, it points towards the US because had it been India or Afghanistan, the spokesperson would have denounced them without mincing words.
Similarly, it is intriguing that the US didn’t target Baitullah Mehsud, who is the cause of present instability and mayhem in Pakistan when the Pakistan Army pointed out his specific location on two occasions. Again, it is baffling why the US didn’t help the Pakistan Army in intercepting the Taliban during the recent Bajaur operation.
The cumulative effect of the US media campaign about Pakistan’s nukes falling into terrorists’ hands and the mysterious American acts of omission and commission as mentioned above is nothing but a feeling of destabilisation, confusion and uncertainty among Pakistanis. This feeling worsens in the backdrop of almost daily suicide bombings and seemingly overwhelming challenge of handling the internally displaced persons. It may not be wrong to say that the nation these days seems to be feeling increasingly helpless and hopeless.
Many critics, including Pakistan’s intelligentsia, believe that the US is deliberately doing what it is doing in order to trigger the collapse of Pakistan. These suspicions on the face of it look utterly unwarranted because if Pakistan collapses, the consequences for the US are too dangerous to even contemplate. But then Shakespeare said that there are more things in heaven and earth than our philosophy can dream of.
Despite these apprehensions, many in Pakistan rule out the possibility of the US getting hold of these weapons even if it wanted to on the ground that it does not know the exact locations where the components are stored. However, that does not mean that the US absolutely cannot mount a military operation. If Pakistan is on the verge of collapse (which many Pakistanis believe is the US agenda), it may take the issue to the Security Council for a resolution to take out these weapons.
To ward off such an eventuality, Pakistan will have to rely on its all-weather friend China. If the US fails to achieve its objective through the Security Council (as happened in 2003 in the Iraq case because of the threat of the impending French veto), let us not rule out US-led action of the kind undertaken against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
Finally, the question arises as to what the US should do to remove Pakistanis’ apprehensions about its intentions for Pakistan’s nukes. To begin with, it should forthwith stop the media blitz about Pakistan’s nukes falling into terrorist hands. If the Americans have any concerns on this count, they should agree to communicate them to the Pakistani government through diplomatic channels.
Second, the US should issue an unambiguous statement renouncing any intention to have control over Pakistan’s nukes, which American leaders sometimes issue. Finally, it should help stem the flow of weapons from Afghanistan into Pakistan.
If the US undertakes these CBMs, they will go a long way in allaying Pakistanis’ apprehensions about American intentions regarding their nukes.
The writer is a former dean of social sciences at the Quaid-i-Azam University. He can be reached at hussain_ijaz@hotmail.com
Source
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
ANALYSIS: Ijaz Hussain
The US should forthwith stop the media blitz about Pakistan’s nukes falling into terrorist hands. If the Americans have any concerns on this count, they should agree to communicate them to the Pakistani government through diplomatic channels
American officials, civilian and military, are working overtime these days to create a scare about the safety of Pakistan’s nukes by claiming that these could fall into the hands of terrorists.
(They formulate their statements quite ingeniously: affirm in the first part absolute faith in Pakistan’s ability to protect them but in the second cunningly cast aspersions on it.)
They are not alone in doing so; the American media has joined them by claiming that the US has contingency plans to secure Pakistani nukes if things get out of hand.
This is driving Pakistanis nuts. They believe that the Americans, in concert with the Israelis and the Indians, are out to deprive them of their nuclear assets. This raises a number of questions.
First, is there a real threat of these weapons falling into the hands of terrorists? Second, if the threat is not palpable, what is the US up to through this fear mongering? Third, what should be done to raise the comfort level of Pakistanis?
Before addressing these questions, a word about the American Ambassador to Islamabad Anne W Patterson’s comment on media reports about the US contingency plans. Strongly contradicting these reports, the other day she observed: “I have seen this in media. I will say that it is all nonsense. It is not technically possible.”
Ambassador Patterson’s denial is understandable because, as a diplomat, she has to say certain things for the good of her country. Otherwise, how could she explain President Obama’s statement in which he publicly confessed that all options were open in case of a threat to Pakistan’s nukes? The ‘all options’ formulation obviously also includes a military option which requires the existence of a contingency plan for its execution.
As to the possibility of these weapons falling into terrorists’ hands, experts categorically rule it out for the simple reason that the nuclear set-up enjoys multi-layered protection. To begin with, these weapons are not available in assembled form as their components are scattered. So even if terrorists were to occupy a site or two where these weapons are located, it would be inconsequential because they could at best get hold of some components but not the assembled devices.
Next, even if terrorists get hold of assembled devices these are useless unless they also get hold of the codes without which the weapons cannot be triggered. It signifies that the American hullabaloo about terrorists’ ability to grab Pakistan’s nuclear assets by storming weapon sites is utterly unfounded.
Given this backdrop, what is the Obama administration up to by relentlessly talking up the possibility of these weapons falling into terrorists’ hands? America’s apologists contend that through these statements it is simply trying to bring home to the Pakistani government the gravity of threat that terrorists pose to Pakistan.
However, the frequency with which the administration (in tandem with the American media and think tanks, which, like their Indian counterparts, are always ready to play along with the American administration) is churning out these statements and the medium (i.e. the media as opposed to diplomatic channels) that it has wittingly chosen to do so give the impression that its intentions go much beyond that. It seems to be preparing international opinion for military action to take out these nukes for “safe international custody” on the ground that the Pakistani government is too fragile and helpless to take care of them.
This media blitz is not all. There are other American acts of omission and commission that heighten misgivings about US intentions regarding Pakistan’s nukes. For example, terrorists are getting latest and highly sophisticated weapons from across the Afghan border. The question arises: who is supplying weapons to terrorists?
Many in Pakistan see a US hand in it. It is noteworthy that whenever the Pakistan Army spokesperson is quizzed about the specific source of these weapons, he prefers to remain silent. To many critics this silence is meaningful. In their view, it points towards the US because had it been India or Afghanistan, the spokesperson would have denounced them without mincing words.
Similarly, it is intriguing that the US didn’t target Baitullah Mehsud, who is the cause of present instability and mayhem in Pakistan when the Pakistan Army pointed out his specific location on two occasions. Again, it is baffling why the US didn’t help the Pakistan Army in intercepting the Taliban during the recent Bajaur operation.
The cumulative effect of the US media campaign about Pakistan’s nukes falling into terrorists’ hands and the mysterious American acts of omission and commission as mentioned above is nothing but a feeling of destabilisation, confusion and uncertainty among Pakistanis. This feeling worsens in the backdrop of almost daily suicide bombings and seemingly overwhelming challenge of handling the internally displaced persons. It may not be wrong to say that the nation these days seems to be feeling increasingly helpless and hopeless.
Many critics, including Pakistan’s intelligentsia, believe that the US is deliberately doing what it is doing in order to trigger the collapse of Pakistan. These suspicions on the face of it look utterly unwarranted because if Pakistan collapses, the consequences for the US are too dangerous to even contemplate. But then Shakespeare said that there are more things in heaven and earth than our philosophy can dream of.
Despite these apprehensions, many in Pakistan rule out the possibility of the US getting hold of these weapons even if it wanted to on the ground that it does not know the exact locations where the components are stored. However, that does not mean that the US absolutely cannot mount a military operation. If Pakistan is on the verge of collapse (which many Pakistanis believe is the US agenda), it may take the issue to the Security Council for a resolution to take out these weapons.
To ward off such an eventuality, Pakistan will have to rely on its all-weather friend China. If the US fails to achieve its objective through the Security Council (as happened in 2003 in the Iraq case because of the threat of the impending French veto), let us not rule out US-led action of the kind undertaken against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
Finally, the question arises as to what the US should do to remove Pakistanis’ apprehensions about its intentions for Pakistan’s nukes. To begin with, it should forthwith stop the media blitz about Pakistan’s nukes falling into terrorist hands. If the Americans have any concerns on this count, they should agree to communicate them to the Pakistani government through diplomatic channels.
Second, the US should issue an unambiguous statement renouncing any intention to have control over Pakistan’s nukes, which American leaders sometimes issue. Finally, it should help stem the flow of weapons from Afghanistan into Pakistan.
If the US undertakes these CBMs, they will go a long way in allaying Pakistanis’ apprehensions about American intentions regarding their nukes.
The writer is a former dean of social sciences at the Quaid-i-Azam University. He can be reached at hussain_ijaz@hotmail.com
Source
Labels: Pakistan's Nukes, US Pakistan Relations
posted @ 11:21 AM,
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