A united Pakistan
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Daily Times, Pakistan
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
WASHINGTON DIARY: Dr Manzur Ejaz
Sri Lanka took more than two decades to suppress Tamil separatists and prevailed. The Pakistani state, with its powerful institutions and military, can get the job done in the northwest in a much shorter period.
For some time now, several elements in the US intelligentsia, military strategists, Indian analysts and even some Pakistani intellectuals have been declaring Pakistan a failed state that will disintegrate in the near future.
Pakistan is facing the most serious crisis in its sixty-year history. Large chunks of the tribal areas and NWFP are under the control of the Taliban, where the Pakistani state has no writ. Anti-state elements have been able to penetrate areas close to the federal capital; while the Indians may be playing games through Afghanistan.
But while there is mammoth disarray in Pakistan, is the country really going to disintegrate?
No. Despite the disastrous situation, the possibility of Pakistan’s disintegration is very minimal. Neither the anti-state elements within Pakistan nor external forces stand to gain anything from such an outcome.
The worst conditions are found in the northwestern Pashtun areas where the Taliban and other extremist groups are engaged in conflict with the Pakistani state. However, the people of these areas have a greater stake in Pakistan, than in separating or becoming part of Afghanistan. Both in good times and bad, Pashtuns have preferred to migrate to other parts of Pakistan than to any neighbouring state. In this context, Pashtuns have economic interests in Punjab and Sindh; and this economic fact has also played out in the political arena.
From the day Nasim Wali Khan joined the anti-Bhutto Pakistan National Alliance, Pashtun nationalism as a separatist movement has not been on the agenda of the Awami National Party or other influential political formations in the region. National parties like the PPP, the JUI and the Muslim League have also been victorious at the polls. Also, during the 2008 elections, the ANP fought on a national rather than a nationalist agenda, and thus readily joined the federal coalition.
Therefore from the ground realities of this region, it can be easily inferred that there is no threat of disintegration here. The conditions under which separatist movements succeed are not present.
One also keeps hearing separatist rhetoric from time to time from some sections of Sindh, the second most populous province of Pakistan. However, the separatist elements in Sindh have never done won anything at the polls. Other than the PPP, the smaller provincial parties have always sought to work within the federation rather than seek a separate “Sindhu-desh”. Furthermore, the cultural, linguistic and historical affinity between Sindh and Punjab is very strong and even the political trends in both provinces are similar.
There are also some elements that wanted to turn Karachi into a separate coastal city-state like Hong Kong or Singapore. But such plans cannot be realised because of the demographic realities of Pakistan’s largest city. The ethnic diversity of Karachi’s population and the state’s high stakes in the city will hardly give a chance to any separatist movement. Further, the strongest party in the city, the MQM, has always been successful in elections and has been involved in the federal government as well. Therefore, there is no threat of Sindh ever abandoning the federation of Pakistan.
However, the serious problem is in Balochistan, where the major tribes don’t seem to have much of a stake in the federation. The Pashtuns of Balochistan may be overwhelmingly supportive of a united Pakistan, but the Baloch problem is very serious and there is a need for strenuous efforts to integrate the people of that province on an economic basis with the rest of the country. This is an achievable goal if the ruling parties redress the grievances of the Baloch people. Pakistan still has time to avoid a separatist war in Balochistan.
Another positive for Pakistan is that neither its neighbours nor the big powers have any interest in breaking up the country. India knows fully well that a stable and prosperous Pakistan is better suited to its interests than a fragmented and unstable Pakistan. Further, the Indian economy also sees potential benefit from a prosperous Pakistani market.
Similarly, Iran will do its best to stop trouble in Balochistan because that could trigger a similar separatist movement in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan.
The major world powers also have nothing to gain from the disintegration of Pakistan. Furthermore, the balance of world power is being reconfigured as the power of the US declines and China rises. The Chinese have already made a long-term investment in the construction of Gwadar Port to reach the Arabian Sea. Therefore, even if someone tries to threaten the unity of Pakistan, China will fully support its long-term ally to safeguard its own interests.
Therefore an examination of internal and external factors indicates that Pakistan’s disintegration is an extremely unlikely possibility. Pakistan may take ten to fifteen years to fully overcome religious insurgency, but eventually, the state of Pakistan will prevail. Sri Lanka took more than two decades to suppress Tamil separatists and prevailed. The Pakistani state, with its powerful institutions and military, can get the job done in the northwest in a much shorter period.
The writer can be reached at manzurejaz@yahoo.com
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
WASHINGTON DIARY: Dr Manzur Ejaz
Sri Lanka took more than two decades to suppress Tamil separatists and prevailed. The Pakistani state, with its powerful institutions and military, can get the job done in the northwest in a much shorter period.
For some time now, several elements in the US intelligentsia, military strategists, Indian analysts and even some Pakistani intellectuals have been declaring Pakistan a failed state that will disintegrate in the near future.
Pakistan is facing the most serious crisis in its sixty-year history. Large chunks of the tribal areas and NWFP are under the control of the Taliban, where the Pakistani state has no writ. Anti-state elements have been able to penetrate areas close to the federal capital; while the Indians may be playing games through Afghanistan.
But while there is mammoth disarray in Pakistan, is the country really going to disintegrate?
No. Despite the disastrous situation, the possibility of Pakistan’s disintegration is very minimal. Neither the anti-state elements within Pakistan nor external forces stand to gain anything from such an outcome.
The worst conditions are found in the northwestern Pashtun areas where the Taliban and other extremist groups are engaged in conflict with the Pakistani state. However, the people of these areas have a greater stake in Pakistan, than in separating or becoming part of Afghanistan. Both in good times and bad, Pashtuns have preferred to migrate to other parts of Pakistan than to any neighbouring state. In this context, Pashtuns have economic interests in Punjab and Sindh; and this economic fact has also played out in the political arena.
From the day Nasim Wali Khan joined the anti-Bhutto Pakistan National Alliance, Pashtun nationalism as a separatist movement has not been on the agenda of the Awami National Party or other influential political formations in the region. National parties like the PPP, the JUI and the Muslim League have also been victorious at the polls. Also, during the 2008 elections, the ANP fought on a national rather than a nationalist agenda, and thus readily joined the federal coalition.
Therefore from the ground realities of this region, it can be easily inferred that there is no threat of disintegration here. The conditions under which separatist movements succeed are not present.
One also keeps hearing separatist rhetoric from time to time from some sections of Sindh, the second most populous province of Pakistan. However, the separatist elements in Sindh have never done won anything at the polls. Other than the PPP, the smaller provincial parties have always sought to work within the federation rather than seek a separate “Sindhu-desh”. Furthermore, the cultural, linguistic and historical affinity between Sindh and Punjab is very strong and even the political trends in both provinces are similar.
There are also some elements that wanted to turn Karachi into a separate coastal city-state like Hong Kong or Singapore. But such plans cannot be realised because of the demographic realities of Pakistan’s largest city. The ethnic diversity of Karachi’s population and the state’s high stakes in the city will hardly give a chance to any separatist movement. Further, the strongest party in the city, the MQM, has always been successful in elections and has been involved in the federal government as well. Therefore, there is no threat of Sindh ever abandoning the federation of Pakistan.
However, the serious problem is in Balochistan, where the major tribes don’t seem to have much of a stake in the federation. The Pashtuns of Balochistan may be overwhelmingly supportive of a united Pakistan, but the Baloch problem is very serious and there is a need for strenuous efforts to integrate the people of that province on an economic basis with the rest of the country. This is an achievable goal if the ruling parties redress the grievances of the Baloch people. Pakistan still has time to avoid a separatist war in Balochistan.
Another positive for Pakistan is that neither its neighbours nor the big powers have any interest in breaking up the country. India knows fully well that a stable and prosperous Pakistan is better suited to its interests than a fragmented and unstable Pakistan. Further, the Indian economy also sees potential benefit from a prosperous Pakistani market.
Similarly, Iran will do its best to stop trouble in Balochistan because that could trigger a similar separatist movement in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan.
The major world powers also have nothing to gain from the disintegration of Pakistan. Furthermore, the balance of world power is being reconfigured as the power of the US declines and China rises. The Chinese have already made a long-term investment in the construction of Gwadar Port to reach the Arabian Sea. Therefore, even if someone tries to threaten the unity of Pakistan, China will fully support its long-term ally to safeguard its own interests.
Therefore an examination of internal and external factors indicates that Pakistan’s disintegration is an extremely unlikely possibility. Pakistan may take ten to fifteen years to fully overcome religious insurgency, but eventually, the state of Pakistan will prevail. Sri Lanka took more than two decades to suppress Tamil separatists and prevailed. The Pakistani state, with its powerful institutions and military, can get the job done in the northwest in a much shorter period.
The writer can be reached at manzurejaz@yahoo.com
Labels: Counter Insurgency, Insurgency, United Pakistan
posted @ 11:25 AM,
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